The Irregular Blather Apr. 19, 1931

No Journal was published Sunday, Apr. 19, 1931. A few videos of the week:

Here's a little of the famed comedy team of Wheeler & Woolsey, mentioned Apr. 13: Cracked Nuts - RKO picture at the Globe. ... "a round of obsolete wisecracks and familiar comedy situations which are still apparently entertaining to a number of people." Woolsey wins crown of mythical kingdom, El Dorania, in "a crap game." Wheeler buys a revolution from an insurgent general but forgets to do anything with it. Miss Oliver owns large plantations and endeavours to keep Wheeler away from her niece. "Gives the impression of having been slapped together from the readiest ideas at hand." [Note: I'd say this was a cheap ripoff of Duck Soup, if Duck Soup hadn't come out two years later]. I wasn't able to find that particular movie, but here's a pretty funny scene where they're caught in a really tough bar ...

Play "Wheeler and Woolsey" on Youtube.

Here's a short clip from a movie version of Peter Ibbetson, play was mentioned Apr. 14: Lee Shubert's "painstaking revival" of the wistful romance, based on George Du Maurier's popular novel. [Childhood sweethearts are separated, the man unjustly imprisoned, but they can reunite eternally in each other's dreams]. Starring Gary Cooper, no less!

Play "Peter Ibbetson" on Youtube.

Here's a little Will Rogers, mentioned Apr. 15: A Connecticut Yankee - ... Mark Twain's amusing tale has been modernized and slightly modified for its star; "a host of Austin cars" are used to transport Arthur's knights, and "a typical Rogers episode shows the Connecticut Yankee participating in a tournament ... dressed in cowboy costume and finally throwing his opponent with a toss of the lasso. ... The Will Rogers drawl tends to slow up" the picture, but this is compensated for by the dialogue, "much of which is spontaneous Rogers humor, including references to current political problems. ... This isn't from the movie, just him doing his thing ...

Play "Will Rogers" on Youtube.

Here's a pretty darn cool film of Don Azpiazu and his orchestra, mentioned Apr. 16 as playing at the Palace, mixed with some nice footage of circa-1930's Cuba:

Play "Don Azpiazu" on Youtube.

Saturday, April 18, 1931: Dow 160.23 -2.36 (1.5%)

Assorted historical stuff:

Henry Ford says first effect of repealing Prohibition would be widespread decline in wages due to “resultant demoralization of labor.” Also states that “no one can question the great increase in general business since the advent of prohibition.”

W. Gifford, AT&T pres., comments on doubtful record of economists in forecasting and moderating business cycles. Points out that modern weather forecasting began about the time of Ben. Franklin's observation that storms travel in opposite direction to the wind. "The practical application of ... economics to the science of business is younger than the application of meteorology to safety at sea and ... agriculture. It is not surprising, therefore, that it is still in a formative state ..."

Wickersham Presidential Commission to make 9 reports over next 2 or 3 weeks, all related to crime. Editorial: Chairman Wickersham is correct in saying a complete overhaul of the criminal justice system is needed, but seems too pessimistic on the possibility of short-term improvement, almost depairing of substantial gain before years of extensive study. “As a people we do not hesitate to experiment in other fields ... and should not too much hesitate to do so in execution of the law.” An overly conservative approach in the US has reduced judges from position of independence to mere administrator and “spectator at a performance of lawyers whose rightful place is on the vaudeville stage.” Overhaul will be a long process, but attention the subject is getting will give immediate benefits, such as the current inquiry into the NY courts. Even “awkward ... episodes” in the Senate Judiciary Committee “when a nomination to the federal bench is dropped into its midst” may indirectly help strengthen judiciary by informing public opinion.

Att'y Gen. Mitchell says antitrust enforcement difficult in view of depression; while he has no authority to declare a moratorium on enforcement, “we have been impressed by the necessity of using peculiar care to make no unwarranted attacks on any business institution ...”

Washington report: Economic observers in Washington see hopeful signs on horizon; economic history indicates current improved bond market is leading indicator of recovery, while weakness in metal markets reflects past conditions. Slight increase in residential building also hopeful. Poor sentiment also reflects past conditions and is typical of depression bottoms, though "world-wide nature of the present depression is not denied or ignored." Main cause for recent drop in Russian orders from US seems to be govt. guarantees by other countries allowing Russia to buy on credit; these countries include Britain, Germany, Norway, Austria, Poland, and Denmark. However, sales in the first 2 months of 1931 were strong, reflecting Russian dependence on the US for farm machinery. After recent Nicaraguan incident, US will in the future investigate carefully before landing US forces in response to “pleas that American interests in that republic are threatened. ... Apparently the Hoover Administration is determined to avoid armed intervention and the Congressional criticism that it causes,” not to mention effects on Latin American relations. However, intervention may still be necessary to protect “property or lives.”

Argentine pres. Uriburu says govt. won't fall into hands of radicals; cabinet merely resigned to give him free hand to cope with current problems; will complete new cabinet of “patriotic Argentines who are above party politics.”

France recognizes new Spanish republic.

Packard-Diesel powered Bellanca plane makes non-refuelling endurance test flight of 73 hours 48 minutes; total cost of fuel $48.50.

US Steel secures American rights to rust and heat resistant steel patents of Krupp interests in Germany.

First all-metal house on display at Grand Central Palace; construction mainly steel, aluminum, and glass. Weight only 1/12 that of concrete and steel construction.

Citrus fields in California now use crude oil burning heaters in their orchards to protect against frost damage. Oil storage tanks for the heaters in these districts have a total capacity of 47.6M gallons. One enterprising Santa Clara grower uses an electric dehydrator for apricots and prunes, which has a capacity of 3,000 pounds and produces a more uniform product than the sun in less time.

Snake and crocodile skins are in growing fashion for women's handbags and shoes; many snakeskins come from the Southwest US, and alligator skins from Florida, although large imports are also coming from the Philippines and Mexico.

Joe Leblang, "chief of the Broadway cut rate theatre ticket business," dead at 57; estate estimated at $20M.

Market commentary:

Market wrap: Moderate early improvement in stocks gave way to "renewed selling of an insistent character"; bears put particular pressure on US Steel, rails, and utilities, causing them to give ground under heavy offerings; selling spread into practically all departments and continued up to the close, with activity picking up in the last hour; public liquidation was heavy and demand largely limited to short covering. Bond trading quiet, irregular; US govts. dull, steady; foreign mixed - Argentine issues rallied while Australian and Brazilian were weak; corp. highest-grade rails firm but speculative and convertible issues irregularly lower. Commodities mixed; wheat firm but corn lower; cotton slightly up. Copper is at 9 3/4 cents but with little buying; price now seen likely to average below 10 cents in 1931 unless smaller producers can be kept under control; "price action during recent weeks has pointed out clearly to all consumers that if they wait long enough they can name their own price for copper." Zinc, crude rubber, and butter hit new lows. Silver market observers pleased with gradual rally since Apr. 6; encouraged by prospects of higher demand from China.

Market observers continue cautious. A good technical rally is considered increasingly likely, but most advise using it to reduce any long positions.

Bears turned their attention to targets that had been relatively resilient, including GM and leading utilities such as Consolidated Gas; these gave ground under heavy selling. Increase of $27M, or 1.48%, in brokers' loans was in line with expectations, though bears contended it indicated transfer of stocks from investors to marginal accounts. Bears also argued much of recent increase in short interest was "selling against strong boxes" (investors hedging stocks that they own), and that "genuine short interest" was less than indicated.

IT&T sold off on concerns they might lose Spanish concession, though co. officials said they expected to keep it since it was awarded by act of Parliament. A.M. Byers is reportedly subject of operations by a "bob-tailed [small] pool" which has been having difficulty attracting a following to the stock in spite of its sharp break over the past month. Observers say Hershey Chocolate may do better than expected this quarter as it benefits from low commodity prices.

Oil shares have been unsettled by continued increase in East Texas production; crude oil there has reportedly been sold as low as 15 cents a barrel. Aviation shares have been more active, reflecting seasonal pickup and successful Detroit aircraft show. Commercial aircraft sales resulting from the show reportedly strong.

Recent poor sentiment is reflected in reaction to dividend announcements; Vanadium dividend omission caused sharp break but Pennsylvania RR announcement of regular dividend payment had little effect.

Municipal bonds have been firm, with good demand from banks and insurance cos., Dow avg. yield of 20 long-term state and city bonds is at 3.83%.

Editorial: March trade figures, though up from Feb., are no cause for celebration. Feb. is always a low point for trade; "gain is merely seasonal, and not a large one, either." A truer comparison with March in previous years shows drastic decline, with exports of $237M vs. $369.6M in 1930 and $481.7M in 1929, and imports of $211M vs. $300.5M and $383.8M. Some details may be more encouraging, including a rise in silver exports, which may indicate better conditions in China.

H. Scandrett, St. Paul RR pres., says co. has cut maintenance expenses to some extent, but railroads, being subject to state and ICC regulation, can't cut expenses proportionally to loss in business as other industries are able to.

F. Ecker, Met. Life Ins. pres., says US people now possibly too pessimistic about business conditions "by just about six months," in the same way they were too optimistic in the six months preceding the 1929 crash; “cites strong cash position of corporations as important indicator for business improvement.”

Some economists believe generally strong corporate balance sheets are postponing wage and dividend and adjustments that must come before a recovery.

L. Robinson, Second Int'l Securities pres., discounts “artificial shortcuts to business recovery” but feels two constructive trends at work: “inevitable revival of consumer purchasing” to replace worn-out necessities, and increased efficiency. However, immediate outlook for stocks obscure due to psychological factors.

Economic news and individual company reports:

Price, Waterhouse audit of Bank of US shows realizable assets of $141.101M, slightly more than net liabilities of $140.372M. S. Rosoff says this verifies his stand that depositors would be paid back fully if his reorganization plan was put into effect, avoiding a forced liquidation with large losses (plan would repay depositors in 70% cash and 30% stock in new bank). At Bank of US trial, it emerged that long before bank closing Superintendent Broderick told Bank of US officials their loans to affiliates were too heavy. It also emerged that H. Lipschutz, asst. Treasurer of many of the bank's affiliates, had acted as “an automaton” for bank officials, signing documents purely on their instructions. NY legislative committee to investigate State Banking Dept. administration by J. Broderick.

Dun's reports lack of forward momentum in general business; brighter outlook from earlier in the season dissipating. As time passes, it's becoming clearer that “the prevailing economic transition is deep-rooted ... and the experiences of other similar periods do not in all ways afford a reliable basis for comparison.” Bradstreet's reports ebb in wholesale and industrial activity, though retail has been stimulated by spring weather.

Farm Board says has received many proposals for dealing with wheat surplus, but so far none have merited serious consideration as national program. Outlook for wheat seen firmer as European demand is increasing; European crop this season was about 5% below last, and exporting countries appear to be reducing acreage due to low prices; recent lack of moisture in US and Canada raises possibility of another drought.

Major oil cos. agree to stabilization plan of Oil States Advisory Committee, limiting production based on nationwide supply and demand.

This week's NY bank statements showed increases in loans and deposits, a reversal of recent trend; possibly due to NY State income tax payments. Holdings of non-govt. securities continued to increase.

C. Higbie, director of many industrial corps. in Michigan area, reports on careful check of Detroit business activity made over past day: April car sales running ahead of March, sees no signs of change in trend; car production to rise 10%-15% in April over March.

Largest drop in rail loadings in March vs. 1930 was in Northwest, 21.1%; smallest in “Pocahontas district,” 12.4%, and East, 13.9%.

BLS reports index of wholesale commodity prices in March was 74.5 vs. 75.5 in Feb. and 90.8 in Mar. 1930.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia reportedly threatens to cut off credit to federal and state govts.; seen as effort to force sounder economic policy. Australian Senate rejects fiduciary notes bill that is “backbone of the government's finance policy,” providing for issuing 18M pounds for farm and unemployment relief.

Austria says it's suspending negotiations with Germany on economic union until League of Nations meeting in May.

German steel ouput in March was 811,000 tons vs. 1.202M a year earlier.

French unemployed on national dole 51,804, on city doles 21,570.

Manchester cotton market slower; demand from India unsatisfactory.

NYSE seat sold for $275,000, down $25,000 from last sale.

US Steel changes pension plan to make retirement mandatory at 70 and remove upper limit of $100/month on payments; will result in large number of executive retirements over next few years.

Goodyear cuts wages of workers at mill in New Bedford 5%-10%.

Aluminum Co. of Amer. continued high 1929 level of production in 1930 in spite of sales decline of about 33%, resulting in higher inventories and current liabilities. However, uses of the metal have increased in structural, automotive, and furniture fields.

Company reports since Apr. 1: 56 companies reported higher earnings vs. 1930 and 148 lower; 105 dividends unchanged, 4 increased, 35 cut.

Companies reporting decent earnings: Connecticut Electric Service, Peoples Gas Light & Coke, Reynolds Metal, Philip Morris Ltd., Penn.-Dixie Cement, Westvaco Chlorine Products.

Theatre:

Melo - by Henry Bernstein, translated from French, at the Ethel Barrymore Theatre, starring Edna Best, Basil Rathbone, and Earl Larimore. "Another triangle play, built around empty victories and wistfully rich defeats in love"; the characters, being musicians, "play their own accompaniment to these events." Marcel Blanc, violin virtuoso, falls in love against his will with his close friend Pierre's wife Romaine, "a sensuous and vivacious child of nature" to the point of madness. Romaine, apparently afflicted with same madness, administers slow poison to Pierre since she would rather kill him than wound him. Pierre is saved from death, but a remorseful Romaine then throws herself in the Seine. Much later, Pierre confronts Marcel and begs him for an understanding of why his wife took her own life; Marcel convinces Pierre it was him (Pierre) that Romaine truly loved; the two then play a sonata together.

Joke:

"'Heard about Jimson being in the hospital?' 'In the hospital? Why, I saw him last night dancing with the dizzy blonde.' 'Yeh; so did his wife.'"

Cactus Joe reports he's not going with a Wild West show this summer: 'The big desperado work is being done in the big cities. I'm goin' to organize a Wild East show.'

Friday, April 17, 1931: Dow 162.59 -2.07 (1.3%)

Omen of sorts?:

Starting today, the Journal consolidated its two market analysis/rumor/gossip columns, “Abreast of the Market” and “Broad Street Gossip,” into one. Possibly a telling indicator that people were getting so discouraged about the market there was no longer enough scuttlebutt to support two columns ...

Assorted historical stuff:

Millard Pryor returns from year-long trip around the world as special Journal correspondent. In Japan, observed "typical citizen lives in a fragile house of meager value ... and feels contented if he has enough food to keep alive his voluminous family." In China, hunger is accepted as "typical state of affairs"; in the tropics, "acquiring of wealth seems to occupy little of their thought and effort. Coming from a sphere ... where such a behavior would be ... next to criminal, at first I was shocked." However, upon observation concluded "these people were just as happy, on the whole, as my friends and fellow citizens ... the distinct impression prevails that human happiness is independent of economic well-being. ... It would be foolish to ask that business forget that it is essentially a profit producing enterprise, yet a shifting of emphasis, even though slight, might easily result in far-reaching effects."

New Spanish Finance Min. Prieto says will observe all govt. obligations but "Spain wants no tutelage." Believes stabilization of peseta not urgent; if country is well-administered, it should naturally return to "parity" value. Peseta fluctuated, closing lower. US will await definite information before deciding on recognition.

Editorial: Bank of England Gov. Norman, on returning from the US, is likely to report "American opinion is more open to the idea of world financial cooperation than at any previous time since the war." Opinion has changed significantly on war debts and use of gold holdings, although Col. Ayres might still come in for Congressional scorn for pointing out that Britain, after repaying a total amounting to a third of its original $4.6M war debt, now owes the US about twice as much measured in commodity value. While US attitude is unpredictable, a world conference on war debts with real US participation is starting to seem more possible.

Rep. Johnson (R, S. Dakota) proposes naming ex-Pres. Coolidge, or other prominent figure outside House, as Speaker in event of deadlock between parties.

Washington report: Oil industry is "at cross-purposes"; while there's an attempt to deal with problems of overproduction, other interests are suing the govt. to be allowed to prospect and drill on public land. Oversupply of oil must be dealt with at the source (drilling), either by economic forces or by law. If there is legislative action, consumers as well as producers must be protected, and this may lead to considerable govt. control of the industry. Many candidates are mentioned for the House Speaker's post. While legal, it's considered unlikely that the House will go outside its membership for a Speaker. Some have speculated that since the House is so closely divided, both parties would prefer not to organize it, preferring to let the other have "responsibility without authority." However, sounder Republicans have refused to listen to this talk, believing it would be "fatal for the party to attempt to dodge its clear duty."

Pres. Hoover may not take vacation this summer; he's currently making a review of the different departments of the govt., and won't be done for some time.

Britain announces will reduce interest paid by Australia on war debts $8M annually for 3 years and extend principal payments 2 years. British Liberal party attitude uncertain regarding Conservative vote of censure on Labor govt., but it's believed govt. will survive by small majority.

Radicals gain in Argentine elections; Gen. Uriburu's provisional cabinet resigns; peso down sharply as central bank suspends support. However, banking circles are pleased with Uriburu's record so far and informed observers believe he can form a coalition govt.

J. Schurman, former US Ambassador to Germany, says German govt. will be in safe hands for many years, and German Fascist party is already disintegrating.

W. Glover, Asst. Postmaster, invites bids for carrying mail on first transatlantic airline; route will be from Charlston, SC to London via Bermuda and the Azores.

Diesel-powered plane demonstrated at Detroit air show; engine has only 1,500 parts vs. 5,000-6,000 in gasoline engine.

Eastman Kodak announces new verichrome film with double silver coating, “greatest invention in snapshot film since 1903.”

After experimenting with an all-glass building, Chicago architects plan an all metal apartment house. Outer walls will be of "silver toned rustless Alleghany metal" backed with cork board and rock wool, and no more than 3.5 inches thick vs. 14 inches for brick walls. Floors will be of insulated ship deck construction. This method will provide 14% more rentable space and cost less to build. Heating will be electric, taking advantage of heat retention capacity of the walls.

Vote counting in the French Chamber of Deputies will henceforth be "mechanical and correct" due to a newly installed electric counting machine. There have been numerous inaccuracies in the past, some for important votes; it took 3 days in Feb. of 1930 to determine the final vote by which the Tardieu cabinet was defeated.

New radium deposits found near Edmonton, Alberta valued at $8,600/ton of ore.

Market commentary:

Market wrap: Pressure on leading shares continued, producing a new low since 1927 in US Steel and new 1931 lows in leaders including National Biscuit and Western Union and in many other shares; market ended generally lower. However, pace of decline slowed, and some resistance appeared, with general list showing some ability to break away from downtrend in the leaders. Bonds more active, irregular; US govts. quiet, steady; foreign mixed - European firm, Brazilian weak, Australian rallied sharply, Argentine rallied after early weakness; corp. highly irregular - high grade firm but several parts of the list reactionary. Commodities quiet; grains narrowly mixed; cotton barely changed. Copper buying quiet again; some metal sold at 9 3/4 cents while most producers held at 10. Silver up 1/2 cent to 28 7/8. Zinc at new low of 3.75 cents. Rio coffee futures on the NY Coffee & Sugar Exchange sold off to 4.35 cents/pound, lowest level since 1903; attributed to weakness in Brazilian currency.

Bear traders apparently took advantage of recent popularity of stop-loss orders, concentrating pressure to move stocks below resistance levels and trigger selling.

Insurance shares, after being relatively inactive for many weeks, sold off sharply along with the general list; banks and trusts were somewhat better supported. West Coast utilities said gaining from recent increase in electric output there.

GM remains one of the few stocks that's favorably mentioned; earnings are reportedly improving, and a bull pool is said to be operating in it, though its operations have been disrupted by declines in the general list. The usually resilient National Biscuit, which has continued to report record earnings, was weak on reports of a decline in current business. Western Union was weak after reporting Q1 earnings of $1.22/share, lowest in 15 years. Gillette was strong on reports of improving finances and earnings. National Steel Q1 earnings repeated Q4 performance as one of very few companies in the industry to cover dividends.

Brokers report recent market action has been discouraging to “outside” (public) who recently bought on recovery hopes; in many cases, they are taking losses and leaving the market. Short interest has again increased in past few days; some brokerage customers have gone short in spite of cautionary advice against it.

Divergence of the general list from leading stocks seen as hopeful sign many stocks have been "thoroughly liquidated," reverse of summer 1929 when the general list started declining even as leaders "were completing the bull swing." Analogy seen between present selloff in high-grade rail stocks, and ill-advised liquidation in AT&T stock during 1920-21 bear market on fears of wireless competition.

Editorial by T. Woodlock: Investigation on rail price-fixing by steel cos. could more effectively be carried out by the ICC than by the Justice Dept.; using subpoenas to gather facts, it could compel the rails to act together even if the steel cos. aren't in technical violation of antitrust law. Lesson, as in many other cases in rail industry, is need for “common action for the common good.”

M. Alexander, Nat'l Industrial Conf. Bd. Of NY chair., says economic readjustment necessary during depression can't be warded off by "building a Chinese wall around wages"; wage cuts proportional to decline in cost of living might allow increase in total wages.

Sir A. Geddes, chair.of Rio Tinto (lowest-cost copper producer), says immediate outlook not good; present economic distress likely to last at least through 1931.

R. Broomfield, Barnsdall VP, says oil industry in new phase; “days of large profits are gone”; industry now in category of low-margin manufacturer.

Grain special:

Editorial: Report that a Farm Board subsidiary has started buying grain elevators indicates it plans to start a large system of wheat marketing through cooperatives. Far from being "farmer-owned and farmer-controlled," this system would therefore be under Farm Board domination. It's the farmers right to market wheat however he chooses, but the govt. shouldn't engage in the business in competition with private marketers. While the public doesn't seem to realize it, the huge farm surpluses the govt. holds are only part of its agricultural operations, and it seems to be getting in deeper and deeper.

Yet another opinion piece on the Farm Board: Created to raise agriculture to parity with industry, it has violated the fundamental principles Pres. Hoover laid down at the April 1929 special session of Congress that led to its formation (no trading or price fixing in commodities, no activities resulting in increased surplus production, no duplication of working private systems, etc). Its current plan to replace the current private marketing system with cooperative marketing under govt. intervention will fail, leaving agriculture worse off and taxpayers to pay the bill.

Jules Fribourg, pres. of one of world's largest grain concerns, predicts world grain situation, though depressed by oversupply and complicated by Russian shipments, will correct itself through normal working of economic forces.

A large broker, catering to the grain trade, quotes from Proverbs 11:26 "He that withholdeth corn the people shall curse him, but blessings shall be on the head of him that selleth it." Or, in more modern parlance, "We advise selling July wheat."

Economic news and individual company reports:

Strike against Philadelphia & Reading Coal & Iron Co. spreads to 10 operations, involving 8,000 workers.

Brazilian situation appears to be “growing acute.” Bond investors have been selling off Brazilian federal and local issues, and coffee prices, upon which Brazil's foreign currency earnings largely depend, are very weak. Brazil appears unable to secure new foreign capital to service debt as it did prior to 1929. Total foreign investment in Brazil is about $3.3B, of which Britain accounts for about $1.5B and the US $500M.

Connecticut passes new laws requiring brokers and security salesman to register; Investment Bankers' Assoc. describes new law as "model measure"; seen putting "teeth" into the fraud law adopted two years ago.

Agriculture Dept. reports plowing for corn well advanced in much of Iowa, though the violent dust storm last week, worst in 40 years, did some damage to oat and barley seedings. Farm Board chair. Stone "expressed some interest in the dryness in the spring wheat belt"; believes production will be affected but it's too soon to tell if crop from that area will be short. Also recommends cotton farmers reduce 1931 acreage 25% below last year.

Commerce Dept. reports March exports $237M vs. $224.4M in Feb. and $369.6M in Mar. 1930; imports $211M vs. $175.1M and $300.5M.

BLS reports Mar. employment in 15 industrial groups almost unchanged from Feb., but payrolls up 0.7%. For manufacturing industries alone, employment rose 0.9% from Feb., and payrolls rose 2.2%.

Fed. Reserve reports money in circulation Apr. 15 up $15M to $4.629B, total Reserve Bank credit outstanding down $34M to $895M. Member banks in NY City report brokers' loans up $27M to $1.849B; loans on securities to non-brokers down $30M to $1.759B. Bank deposits in NY City were down over $1B in the year up to Mar. 25. While dramatic, this followed a usual seasonal pattern in which out-of-town banks withdraw deposits during the first quarter; banks outside the financial centers mostly reported higher deposits.

Dow average of 8 iron and steel products was unchanged at $44.23, low for 1931. Scrap prices dropped substantially at several important centers.

Several rails are experimenting with excursion fares as low as 1 cent/mile [vs. normal fares of about 2 cents/mile] to boost passenger traffic.

Bank of England lost 821,000 pounds in gold, reducing holdings to 146.2M; however, reduction is believed temporary due to Argentine situation.

Suez Canal Q1 revenues declined 6.8% to $15.1M, relatively better than the Panama Canal's 11.2% decline to $6.0M.

NY State tax officials expect drop of 20% in income tax returns from $40.2M total last year.

NY City borrows $41M short-term at 1 7/8%; their long-term bonds yield slightly under 4%.

Detroit reports applications for public relief in March were 4,085 vs. 9,043 in Feb. and 5,488 in Mar. 1930; applications so far in April are about 100/day.

Chevrolet reports March domestic sales of 73,628 cars and trucks, up 48% from Feb.; sales showed strong gains in each 10-day period, and dealer reports indicate continued gains in April.

Companies reporting decent earnings: Waldorf System (restaurants), Lambert (toiletries and medicinals).

Theatre:

Six Characters in Search of an Author - by Luigi Pirandello, translated from Italian, at the Bijou Theatre, starring Walter Connolly and Paul Guilfoyle. Abandoned by their author, a forlorn family of imaginary characters, father, mother and four children, wander unannounced into a theatre where a rehearsal is in progress. The question of the differences and similarities between acting and being, between characterization and character become bitter points of contention between the imaginary family and the 'real' director and his company. These questions, used to suggest more universal questions regarding reality and pretense outside the theatre, no longer seem as profound and disturbing as they once did but this makes the play more enjoyable and accessible. Treatment of the play is heavier than it should be but leading parts are acted well "and the more important passages .. are usually impressive."

Report from France:

Paris theatre has split into two camps on the question of censorship. Unlike in the US, where censorship is usually on moral grounds and is a reliable box office stimulant until litigation is complete, on the Continent it's often on political grounds, as in Austria and Germany's recent ban of the US-made All Quiet on the Western Front. Just days ago, French police ordered closing of a German play concerning the Dreyfus affair, a political scandal that bitterly divided French society at the turn of the century, saying the play provoked disorder. Few who were in Paris at the time can forget the “seething hatred” caused by the affair, in which a young Jewish officer in the French army, Captain Dreyfus, was convicted of selling military secrets to Germany. Street riots were frequent, and the mere mention of the name drew scowls and violent words. (An article by Emile Zola later inspired a controversial reopening of the case, and Dreyfus was exonerated). Proponents of the play now demand the same freedom accorded the press, while opponents contend "the theatre because of its more intimate and personal appeal,” is a more powerful medium with a greater responsibility and "that its potentialities as a propagandist for causes far exceeds the fleeting message of the press."

Thursday, April 16, 1931: Dow 164.66 -3.77 (2.2%)

Assorted historical stuff:

Spring wheat areas in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and part of Iowa report a shortage of rain “so serious as to cause widespread dust storms”; both topsoil and subsoil in bad condition. This is “a comparatively late turn in events. Up to a couple of weeks ago, it appeared as though the drought had almost been broken.” Canada's Western prairie provinces also report drastic lack of rain, poor seeding situation, and major dust storms.

Head of Spanish provisional govt. N. Zamora pledged Spain will be given Constitutional govt. respecting religious and property rights of all. Peseta (currency) rallied vigorously in spite of continued rumors and skepticism on new govt.'s chances of success, with bankers expecting inflation.

Sen. Couzens (R, Mich.), former Ford VP and GM, warns that unless business leaders quickly make concerted effort to solve unemployment and stabilize industry, Congress will step in and provide for old age and unemployment insurance. Editorial: Sen. Couzens, using some sarcasm, stated that he hopes the US Chamber of Commerce meeting will "instruct Congress what we are not to do concerning the care of our citizens who are in distress." If the Chamber's pres. wanted to answer in kind, "he might have referred the Senator to ... the last session of Congress for some examples of what not to do"; instead, he took the high road with a "polite and evidently sincere" invitation to Sen. Couzens to "give the Chamber the benefit of any constructive ideas that may be teeming in his brain." This is a fine idea. The Senator also asks the Chamber "if it approves of 'the present trend of accumulation of property into the hands of the few.' Who is better qualified than the Senator to enlighten the Chamber on that process?" [I assume this was a shot at Couzens' wealth - he sold his interest in Ford for $35M in 1919.]

Recent surveys indicate little hope of smaller deficit in 1932 fiscal year (starting July 1), since economic recovery will be too gradual. It remains to be decided if govt. will cover deficit by borrowing or by raising taxes. If a tax hike is chosen, the politically expedient form would be a “soak the rich” surtax, though this would of course be harmful economically. A more desirable course would be to broaden the tax base, though this seems unlikely to attract support.

Editorial: In Canada a royal commision headed by Sir Josiah Stamp will investigate the very old question of whether speculation in farm products leads to lower prices. While US and Canadian farmers believe it definitely does, they might be surprised to find British consumers are positive it raises them! In fact, it does neither but is simply "a factor in registering prices, and those prices represent an equation of supply and demand ... The sooner farmers in Canada and the United States learn that speculation does not make prices high or low, and that it perfoms a most useful function in marketing farm products, the better it will be for them."

Editorial by T. Woodlock refuting Gov. Pinchot's accusation that electric utilities overcharge home customers by about $500M/year based on the rates they pay compared to industry. In 1929, utilities made $835M of profit on an investment of $11B, a return of 7.59%; lowering rates to home users by $500M would reduce return to a measly 3% (rates to industry are set competitively and so can't be raised much). Detailed analysis by Col. W. Kelly, VP of Buffalo, Niagara & Eastern Power, shows costs of service to home customers are in fact much higher, accounting for the difference in rates. Pennsylvania Senate committee investigating the state utility board criticizes Pinchot for attacks on the board and utilities in general, saying it found no evidence of corruption.

The Rotolactor, a machine that bathes, dries and milks 50 cows in 12 1/2 minutes, is now employed at the Walker-Gordon farm in Plainsboro, NJ. A turntable 60 ft in diameter is used; cows enter and exit without direct human assistance; vacuum pumps milk each cow, placing its milk in a separate jar. All this ensures the milk is kept absolutely clean. The machine runs 21 hours a day performing more than 5,000 separate milkings; each cow gets three turns on the ride.

The NY Telephone Co. has developed into an amazingly efficient organization; for example, service on a new phone begins immediately after the wires are attached. The serviceman, after completing installation, makes the first call to his coordinating office to report installation is complete and working, after which service on the new phone is no different from the other hundreds of thousands in NY City.

A huge factory, occupying 5 acres and costing $1.5M but without a single window, was recently built in Fitchburg, Massachusetts for Simmonds Saw & Steel Co. Daylight is replaced by uniform illumination from hundreds of 1,000 watt lamps. Other "scientific innovations" include an electric ventilation system and noise reducing appliances. The color scheme is also notable - machinery is orange, walls and ceilings blue, green and white, to rest the eyes.

NY City to immediately spend $2M of $10M appropriated by Legislature to give jobs to unemployed; will put 15,000 to work.

Archbishop of Canterbury and J.P. Morgan, cruising the Mediterranean on the Corsair, visit Jerusalem; King David Hotel flies US flag in Morgan's honor.

Market commentary:

Market wrap: Stocks broke badly. Bears applied pressure early, attacking US Steel through the morning and finally establishing a new bear market low under the 134 3/8 mark reached last Dec. Attention swung to Vanadium about noon; it plunged after suspending dividends. Selling spread to leading rails at mid-day; NY Central particularly weak on poor loadings report. Pressure on rails lifted briefly after Penn. RR declared normal dividend, but another selling wave broke over the general market about 2 o'clock; leaders lost further ground and US Steel and the rails closed at new bear market lows. Bond trading quiet; US govts. strong; European steady but S. American unsettled after another break in Brazilian issues; highest-grade utilities firm but rest of corp. list generally down; oil and rail issues particularly weak. Commodities mixed; wheat up substantially, other grains firm; cotton down substantially. Copper buying quiet; price remained at 10 cents/pound. Zinc declined to new low of 3.80 cents.

Conservative observers discouraged by inability of market to resist selling; continue recommending the sidelines.

Liquidation by the public and brokerage traders was higher than in recent sessions.

Observers encouraged by recent moderate improvement in copper conditions; believe latest price firming may be on a sounder basis than the sharp advance attempted earlier. Tobacco shares have held up relatively well recently; some of the buying may be due to persistence of rumors of wholesale price hike. Some quiet buying reported recently in rail bonds based on expense cuts and moderate business improvement in March.

NY Central may have felt effects of the industrial slump more than any other system; most of its volume is supplied by important industrial states including NY, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. US Steel annual meeting will be held Monday, directors' meeting on dividends and earning report on the 28'th; report "may make poor reading."

Leading brokers report public has been waiting for a definite business upturn before buying, but report some "shrewd buying" by longer-term interests. Bankers queried on their outlook generally feel the market "may be about dragging bottom," but admit the "banking fraternity" doesn't contemplate "important action ... to stimulate interest on the buying side until it has been established definitely that general liquidation is out of the way for some time."

Broad Street Gossip: Rails are viewed more pessimistically than in years by the general public and market writers, although many high grade issues are selling at half or less of their 1929 peak, and "it is a foregone conclusion that when general business begins to pick up, the business of the railroads will increase with it." Stock "accumulation" continues, "but that counts for little in the absence of organized support." Stocks of some companies with gains of 25%-50% in shareholders over the past 18 months are down 50% or more in that time. One group recently bought over 100,000 shares of a certain stock over two weeks; the stock gained 3 points, but then lost all of the gain on total sales of less than 30,000 shares. Short interest is very large, "but it is evident that the shorts are confident of their position and have refused to be stampeded."

F. Awalt, deputy Comptroller of the Currency, says banking affiliates should be supervised, but without unreasonable restrictions that would tear down the national banking system.

Former Bank of France Gov. Moreau says there's a tendency to exaggerate role of central banks in world economic problems, since they are incapable of fixing prices. Sees need for developing foreign loans.

Hotel Pierre pres. Charles Pierre reports NY City's large hotel business, long considered an accurate barometer of general business trends, is clearly picking up.

J. Auchincloss, NY Better Business Bureau pres., says experience shows depressions "provide the richest soil for crooks' predatory activities." People who have lost the most "are the readiest to seize upon deperate expedients to recoup their losses"; urges coordination of fraud fighting agencies.

J. Pelley, New Haven RR pres., says business remains at low level, but sees some encouraging signs, and "more definite feeling of optimism in the air."

Martin Insull, Middle West Utilities pres., says utility holding companies have made US electric industry preeminent in the world over past 20 years; best interests of public served by “regulation of the operating company, with freedom of the holding investment company.”

While current depression isn't an exact parallel to that of 1921, history does show that when recovery begins corporate profits can recover with amazing speed; following the 1921 depression, corporate profits in 1922 rose an astounding 800% on a revenue increase of only 8% (though they were still below the 1920 total). Steel industry decline was more drastic in 1921 depression; production bottomed at 22% vs. 39% in 1930, while prices declined 50% vs. 12%.

Economic news and individual company reports:

Conference of West Palm Beach bondholders and city officials fails to reach definite conclusion. City has been in default of payment of interest since May 1929 and principal since Oct. 1929. Stockholders of defunct City Trust Co. to be allowed to sue officers and directors of the bank for "alleged wrecking of institution." NY Banking Superintendent Broderick testifies he didn't know of complex transaction by which Bank of US made it appear two affiliates had repaid $8M loan.

Steel production downtrend continued; week ended Monday was 50.5% vs. 52% prev. week, 55% two weeks ago, 75% in 1930, and 96% in 1929. Weekly steel reviews more pessimistic; hopes for recovery to March level waning; rail and farm demand down; automotive hard to predict; some hope for construction increase. Some price weakness in finished products; severe weakness in scrap “seen as ominous by many observers.” Machine tool demand weaker.

Labor Sec. Doak reports employment in manufacturing industries increased 2.3% from Jan. to Mar.; payrolls increased 10%.

New life insurance written in March was $1.028B, down 15.9% from 1930; total for Q1 was down 12.2%.

Long analysis of national income and tax data for 1929. In spite of the crash late in 1929 that wiped out $25B in stock value, total net income of $24.5B was almost unchanged from 1928, and much of that income came from capital gains, particularly for the highest income brackets (total net gains $3.9B).

Bell System grew at slower pace in 1930; revenues were $1.103B vs. $1.071B; net $283.5M vs. $291.1M; phones in system 20.098M, up 1.054M.

Rubber industry operations have recovered seasonally from low of last fall, but production for Jan.-Feb. remained 15% below 1930 and 30% below the 4-year average; outlook uncertain pending summer buying season; tire prices believed firmer; crude rubber situation remains unfavorable,

World sugar agreement to be signed June 5 at The Hague, where the permanent commission will be located. World lead producers agree to curtail output 15%.

Lloyd's reports world shipbuilding activity declined over 325,000 gross tons since start of year, to lowest in four years; British plunged from 908,902 to 693,814, US was relatively stable, and French increased substantially.

Canadian budget for fiscal year starting Apr. 1 was $386.4M, down $37.3M from prev. year.

French decree raises allowed percentage of foreign wheat in flour from 5% to 15%. Price of wheat is at postwar record high of 180 francs/100 kilos.

German state and central govts. guarantee 70% of credits to Russia to support German exports there.

Argentine exports in Q1 were 3.976M tons, valued at $162.0M, up 37.7% in volume but down 15% in value vs. 1930.

14 textile mills in Carolinas to merge into Textiles, Inc.; to be largest yarn spinner in US, controlling 300,000 spindles.

Fertilizer sales in 10 Southern states in 8 months ending in March were down 33% from prev. year.

American Tobacco makes 8 brands of cigarettes, 2 of little cigars, 2 of cigarette paper, 3 of "twist tobacco," and 17 of plug, chewing, and smoking tobaccos. American Machine & Foundry, whose machines make 95% of US cigarette output, is developing a machine that can produce up to 2,000 cigarettes a minute, vs. current machine's capacity of 600/minute.

GM sales to dealers worldwide in March were 119,195 cars and trucks, up 24% from March and only down 10% from 1930, best comparison this year; Q1 sales were 304,547, down 17%.

International Great Northern Rwy. was only one of the first 23 class 1 rails reporting Q1 traffic figures to show an increase over last year; car loadings gained 17.8%, benefiting from large movement of oil from new East Texas fields.

Companies reporting decent earnings: W.T. Grant (chain stores), Niagara Hudson Power, American District Telegraph, Rand Mines Ltd., Zonite (antiseptic and household drugs), Wil-Low Cafeterias.

Theatre:

Top-notch vaudeville at The Palace. Four actors share role of MC, including Phil Baker and Bert Lahr. Features Don Azpiazu's Havana Casino Orchestra playing The Voodoo, Azpiazu's "stirring composition ... particularly effective in dance form presented by the West Indian [Caribbean] girl who appears with the orchestra." Of course, the band also plays Azpiazu's smash hit The Peanut Vendor, with English lyrics by Marion Sunshine. Other acts include Lahr and Ben Bard in "the examination scene from Flying High, which nearly everyone found shocking but hilarious," and Baker and "Italian dialect comedian Harry Burns ... in some more or less spontaneous nonsense."

Movie:

Strangers May Kiss - MGM, starring Norma Shearer and Robert Montgomery, at the Capitol. "Cheap trash", "lavish production and competent acting of the principals are powerless to make the movie saisfying," although it does feature Shearer saying "I'm in an orgy, wallowing, and I love it."

Poem by Justa Naverage (with apologies to Kipling):

"Wheat, wheat, wheat, wheat, Wheat and the chronic sight of it!
Cheap, cheap, cheap, cheap, But millions can't get a bite of it!
Pools and probes and probes and pools, Government guarantees, politics, fools
Farmers, grainmen - these are the tools That have chiseled the present plight of it. ..."

Report from France:

Old Paris, with its "narrow crooked streets," "sinister quarters," and "unsavory tenants," is being demolished to make way for more pleasant neighborhoods, including modern cinemas. The most notorious slum in old Paris, the former Cour des Miracles, is now home to the Theatres des Miracles, showing a film with Douglas Fairbanks, Jr. This neighborhood, once home to "the most depraved criminals of Paris" and immortalized by Victor Hugo in Notre Dame de Paris, took its ironic name from a public court at which beggars "miraculously" washed off their painted wounds to turn into "banditti" by night, while old women returned from begging on church steps and shed their years and rags "for that other role which they played by night in the streets of Paris."

Wednesday, April 15, 1931: Dow 168.43 -2.64 (1.5%)

Assorted historical stuff:

Spanish govt. overthrown. After a strong Republican showing in local elections, King Alfonso gave in to their demands and abdicated so a new govt. could be set up. This ended 981 years of monarchical govt. Demonstrations throughout Spain but fair order maintained; martial law declared. Provisional Republican govt. named. King granted safe conduct; gave in to avoid civil war and bloodshed. Editorial: At the moment, Spain is in total confusion. "Yet, assuming reasonable ability on the part of the Republicans," change should be wholly positive. Public sentiment had been moving toward more democracy for some time. It's a "great gain that this was a bloodless revolution, fought with ballots instead of bayonets." While outcome is unpredictable, it's reasonable to expect transition to constitutional govt. respecting "private rights of person and property." Finances shouldn't cause concern; Spain has ample gold reserves and "no inflationary problems"; currency decline has been due to "timidity or incompetency." Investors shouldn't fear repudiation of debts, since by international law, revolution doesn't extinguish debts.

Interesting Woodlock editorial answering reader's question about what would happen to the gold-standard economies if technological development provided an unlimited supply of cheap gold [I actually predict this will happen in the next 30 years]. Woodlock answers the consequences would be similar to the German hyperinflation: owners of real state, buildings, and “things” would be as rich as before, debtors would be freed of debt (since the money they owe, being based on gold, would be worthless), and creditors would be wiped out. Since, in the US economy, the middle and wage-earning classes are the creditor classes, unlimited gold would wipe out most of their property. (Of course, consequences would also include “indescribable confusion for a time” until new money system emerged).

Editorial: Economist Sir George Parish recently joined ranks of many other non-radicals who nevertheless believe evolution of Russia "toward sanity and a genuine freedom of the spirit" is inevitable, and would be helped by extending long-term loans; this should also have the practical benefit of ending Soviet "dumping" of foodstuffs. However, in view of the clear Soviet stance that private property is "the vilest of social evils," could he really recommend those loans to the investing public or a bank? "If Russia is to float a loan, in Canada or elsewhere, let the prospectus recommending it to investors be drawn up by Sir George Parish."

Pres. Hoover praises black economic and cultural progress in speech marking 50'th anniversary of Booker T. Washington's school at Tuskegee. Pres. Hoover, in Pan American day speech, praises progress toward settlement of major disputes among American republics by conciliation and arbitration.

Japanese cabinet headed by Y. Hamaguchi resigned Monday; Emperor Hirohito directed former premier R. Wakatsuki to form new cabinet.

Sir H. Robson, British delegate to recent grain conference, attributes current "disastrous" situation to govt. intervention, in exporting countries by accumulation of huge surpluses, and in importers by regulations and import duties.

Supreme Court decision on oil cracking patent seen as important, validating cross-licensing and sharing of patent royalties as possibly promoting rather than restraining competition.

The car industry has been a large factor in the country's progress over the past 20 years; some estimate it directly and indirectly employs 10M people. It has been a large contributor to growth in steel, oil, copper, electric, lumber, and other industries; it's even one of the largest customers of the rails, in spite of their complaints about cars usurping their business. It's estimated owners in 1931 will pay a record high of $1B in taxes on their cars. The 20 million'th Ford car was assembled at the Rouge plant in the presence of Henry and Edsel Ford.

Holland Tunnel sets new record for traffic volume April 12, when 58,702 cars passed through.

New Jersey trout fishing season begins today; over half a million trout have recently been distributed in rivers and brooks, or 500 per mile.

The Dead Letter Office in Washington received 22.686M letters in the 1930 fiscal year. After every attempt at delivery failed, the letters were opened, and 70% of the $105,000 in currency and 98% of the $5.3M in checks were returned to the senders.

Bond Club to revive its annual Bawl Street Journal publication "filled with Wall Street witticisms and satirical thrusts aimed at the outstanding personalities and events of the financial district." Previous copies have become collector's items.

F. Pasley of the Chicago Tribune has written a bio of Al Capone, "appropriately sub-titled 'The Biography of a Self-Made Man.'" The ad promises "everything is here, from the first handshake murder to Capone's party on his Florida estate, where the guests amused themselves by shooting at floating pop bottles with machine guns."

Market commentary:

Market wrap: Stocks opened with continued strength, lifting majors in early trading and prompting "urgent short covering." However, uptrend was checked about noon as selling broke out in groups including electrical equipment and amusement shares. Main body of stocks showed good support at first, but gave way in the afternoon following renewed assault on electrical shares. Bond trading dull; US govts. continued strong; Brazilian issues again weak, but other foreign bonds quiet, with no apparent effect from Spanish news; corp. highest-grade firm but second-grade and speculative mostly lower; some rallying in rails. Commodities weak; grains mostly lower; cotton down sharply.

Electrical shares were a weak spot following estimate GE wouldn't cover dividend in Q1 and previous Westinghouse report of loss. Amusements also weak on anticipated seasonal earnings decline. GM remained strong on expected favorable sales report. March rail earnings expected to increase from Feb. based on gain of 104,100 in car loadings; this compares favorably to an 8,800 gain in Mar. 1930 and a 40,600 gain in Mar. 1929. Both the oil trade and Wall Street believe a cut in midcontinent crude prices may be coming soon.

Bulls encouraged by pattern "on several occasions recently" of lower volume when market was under pressure and more active trading during rallies; this is believed "one of the most encouraging signs in the past few weeks," reflecting lack of liquidation on declines and entry of new buyers on rallies. Market observers believe short interest may "provide a cushion for the market during reactions"; bear policy in past few weeks has been to cover during reactions. Market appears more selective than in past several years, as investors seem to be carefully weighing merits of individual stocks; this has caused some stocks to hold quite well even under heavy bear pressure, while others in the same group give way.

Market interests who incline to the long side say constructive business news now would materially help stocks; however, many feel business news is unlikely to improve much until after first-half earnings reports; substantial industrial improvement is seen likely to come in the late fall and extend into 1932.

Jackson, Boesel say market should "fluctuate meaninglessly" in a trading range for about 60 days; "short interest is ... too large to permit of a major decline in the near future," while a "major advance is also out of the question" due to pending bad news including removal of govt. support for wheat and poor Q1 earnings. After this period, "technical position will be unusually favorable for a sustained advance," based on business improvement that should by then be apparent.

Broad Street Gossip: One broker who keeps tabs on incoming "tips" reports he received 38 last week, of which 33 were bearish. The market declined steadily from Mar. 24 - Apr. 14; the Dow industrial average closed lower on 15 of 18 trading days, ending with a total loss of 17.57. A number of bull pools were formed early in the year; most "still are intact and will become active as soon as conditions warrant." Brokers report a "preponderance" of accounts now are using no margin, even with call money at 1 1/2%; in 1929, with call money at 8%-10%, margin accounts predominated.

A. Reeves, Nat'l Auto. Chamber of Commerce GM, reports car buying demand encouraging; believes buying will extend far beyond usual spring season into summer due to carmakers' recent decision not to announce new models in the summertime.

Florida Gov. Carlton says defaults of local Florida govt. debts have frozen public and private enterprise. However, says direct aid in form of absorbing debts with state bonds out of the question; calls for "uniform but liberal" procedure for refinancing.

Lawrence Stern & Co. note sharply improved bond market in March; only 20% of dealers surveyed reported normal business in Feb., but 40% did in March, while over 90% foresee fairly good bond business in coming months.

Col. Ayres of Cleveland Trust points out price-earnings multiples of high-grade stocks remain relatively high due to earnings declines; at end of 1930, leading stocks sold for 20 times earnings vs. 19 at the bull market peak. However, the price-dividend multiple has declined from 32 at the peak to about 17 now; corporations largely maintained dividends as earnings declined, and as a result were paying out 114% of earnings at the end of 1931.

Judge M. Gossett, Federal Land Bank of Houston pres., defends firm loan collection policy, points out dangers of leniency.

R. Stephenson, Amer. Bankers Assoc. pres., says wage adjustments should be made if required by economic conditions; however, calls on the banker predicting that wage cuts are inevitable to make clear he “is merely interpreting impersonal events and is not expressing personal desires of himself or his supposed class.”

Banking situation doesn't show any real business revival yet. Loans at Fed. member banks alone are down $852M since start of the year, while investments held by banks continue to grow; “there seems to be almost no demand for credit, at least of a type that banks are willing to extend, and so long as this condition continues money will rule extremely easy and banks will be forced to seek employment for their funds in the investment market.”

Economic news and individual company reports:

Nat'l Industrial Conf. Bd. notes bonded debt of state and local govts. has been rising steadily in recent years, contrary to trend in Federal debt. State and local net bonded debt in 1928 was $12.6B, up 7.6% from 1927; previous two years showed increased of 9.5% and 9.2%.

GE Q1 earnings fell slightly below dividend requirements of 40 cents/share, for the first time in many years; Q1 1930 earnings were 50 cents; new business bookings in Q1 were 33% below 1930.

Bell System showed a net decline of 38,500 or 1/4% in telephones in Q1; first quarterly decline in memory, though March showed increase.

Bethlehem Steel expects slight profit in Q1. About 500 stockholders present at annual meeting. Chair. Schwab gave impassioned defense of controversial executive bonus system, but stockholders were restrained from announcing results of the vote pending notice from the court. Company held proxies for about 72% of shares, enabling them to pass any motions favored by management.

Net profits of 722 industrial and mercantile companies in 1930 were 42% below 1929, 32% below 1928, 16% below 1927, and lowest since 1924. Earnings of telephone cos. and other public utilities in 1930 were only slightly changed from 1929, and remained well above previous years.

Veterans' bonus payments as of Apr. 11 reached $473.5M to 1.257M veterans; thus far, very little seems to be making its way back to banks as deposits.

Prosecutor Steuer in Bank of US trial charges $8M loan to affiliate was made on highly overvalued assets.

Rail freight loadings for holiday week ended Apr. 4 were 728,511, down 11,568 from prev. week, down 19.7% from 1930 week, and down 23.9% from 1929.

Refineries ran at 66.4% in week ended Apr. 11; stocks of gasoline increased 681,000 barrels to 46.757M. Crude oil production in week was 2.308M barrels/day, up 56,150 from prev. week but down 252,900 from a year ago. Almost all of week's increase due to Texas production. Texas Att'y Gen. rules restraining order against East Texas curtailment only applies to small tract; Railroad Commission will move to enforce curtailment.

Portland cement production in March was 8.227M barrels, down 26.7% from prev. year; shipments were 7.172M, down 18.7%.

Newsprint production in US and Canada in March was 287,595 tons vs. 253,340 in Feb. and 320,813 in March 1930.

Hog and steer prices continued decline. Opening prices for 1931 Hawaiian pineapples down 16% from last year.

US steamship interests will seek legislation to curb activities of foreign ship lines in travel lanes that "belong to the American lines," particularly "trips to nowhere." Claim earnings of foreign lines not taxable, and therefore unfair to US lines.

Foreign exchange market featured sharp break in Spanish pesetas; sentiment was disturbed by failure of Bank of Spain to defend currency in spite of obtaining recent $60M stabilization credit; “rumors of all kinds” circulated due to strict censorship in Spain.

L. Ponton, Mexican Finance Min. chief clerk, says govt. faces 30M peso deficit this year as Q1 revenue was 10% below estimates. Mexican Agricultural Chamber favors suspension of debt payments "for this year at least" to finance Mexican agriculture.

Poland to cut salaries of govt. and army officials 15% for monthly savings of $1.2M

Suez Canal receipts from Jan. 1 - Apr. 10 were $15.121M, down over $1M from last year; cut in rates considered to stimulate traffic.

Kellogg Co. of Battle Creek adopts 6-hour day to relieve unemployment.

Q1 earnings/share: AT&T $2.51 vs. $2.96; Western Union $1.22 vs. $1.76; Scott Paper $1.63 vs. $1.57; Otis Elevator $0.68 vs. $0.83.

Companies reporting decent earnings: Scott Paper, Commonwealth Edison, National Public Service, Chesebrough Mfg. (Vaseline), Unilever.

At the galleries:

Knoedler Galleries hosts exhibit of “Pictures of People” to benefit Hope Farm; perhaps the finest canvas is Whistler's “White Girl,” painted in 1863 and widely exhibited since, although Whistler's reputation as a painter “has begun delicately to decline.” Also shown are two Renoir masterpieces, two Cezannes, “without whose work no group exhibition of the past 50 years can be considered complete,” the masterful “The Soap Bubble” by Manet, and “L'Arlesienne” by Van Gogh, as well as portraits by Sargent, Bellows, Matisse, Beal, Picasso, and Specher. Kennedy & Co. are showing an interesting set of drawings of old NY by Nicolina Calyo, depicting “sidewalk types of a vanished era” including “the chimney sweep, the cane seller, the rubbish man, the pineapple seller, the soap fat man, the root beer seller, etc.”

Movie:

A Connecticut Yankee - starring Will Rogers; at the Roxy. Mark Twain's amusing tale has been modernized and slightly modified for its star; "a host of Austin cars" are used to transport Arthur's knights, and "a typical Rogers episode shows the Connecticut Yankee participating in a tournament ... dressed in cowboy costume and finally throwing his opponent with a toss of the lasso. ... The Will Rogers drawl tends to slow up" the picture, but this is compensated for by the dialogue, "much of which is spontaneous Rogers humor, including references to current political problems. ... Industrialization of the kingdom ... is amusingly depicted ... bathtubs are introduced and the technique of warfare is advanced by the production of machine guns, bombs and airplanes."

Joke:

"Husband - I've got to get rid of my chauffeur; he's nearly killed me four times. Wife - Oh, give him another chance."

"Son - Ma, what's the idea of making me sleep up here every night? Mother - Hush, Bobby, you only have to sleep on the mantelpiece two more weeks, and then your picture will be in a Believe-It-Or-Not cartoon."