July 14, 2009

Monday, July 14, 1930: Dow 229.23 +4.37 (1.9%)

Assorted historical stuff:

Editorial: Opinions differ on seriousness of the American Communist threat, but it's clear that Kremlin at least has ambitions in that direction. Stalin himself pronounced the American Party of decisive importance, probably because US society may offer a more attractive option for mass prosperity. We must tolerate American Communists “so long as they refrain from criminal acts or clearly treasonable utterances,” and rely on truth as a “mental antiseptic.”

World auto registrations total 35.127M, of which 26.653M are in the US.

Industrial cities in Ruhr region of Germany suffering from slag heaps (artificial hills of industrial waste) that can smolder for decades. At Essen, slag heap of Krupp's works has been burning continuously since 1914.

Italian taxpayers complaining about number of government employees under Mussolini; currently 514,878 and rapidly rising.

Australian total production in 1928-29 fiscal year was $2.275B, total govt. expenditures including local $1.190B. Govt. currently having severe problems with budget. Large meeting of business leaders protests government plan to “borrow enough to balance the budget, making repayments from future revenue.”

Association Against the Prohibition Amendment reports prohibition cost the US govt. $869.5M in lost revenue in 1929.

Luther Burbank invents "prunasimmonia", cross between prune and persimmon. Delectable fruit with tomato-like skin and "rich, golden yellow meat."

Prominent bookmaker John Walters dies, leaving estate of $2.6M.

Postmaster General recommends increase in first-class postage to 2.5 cents/ounce to balance budget.

Market commentary:

Bulls encouraged by drop in volume late Friday and first half hour Saturday (lack of forced liquidation). Buying picked up over remainder of two hour session. Strong gains in oil (major oil companies settled California price war), food (low commodity prices). New rally highs in major industrials, market generally positive. Banks, trusts and insurance cos. higher. Bond trading moderate; speculative issues fractionally lower, US Govt. slightly higher.

Important economists strongly believe current seasonal lull is low point of the industrial depression; some good news in week-over week freight increase and June rise in construction contracts. Drop in steel backlog not as bad as feared; oil curtailment making progress; increase in rail freight rates.

Conservative observers still advise remaining on sidelines until market has demonstrated ability to resist bears. Forecast another test this week; market ability to move through last June 30 highs on volume would be positive signal. Also cautious about second-quarter earnings reports.

$11B decline in NYSE stock values in June was sizeable, but only represented 3% of total estimated US wealth.

Some say business recovery won't come until fall so market won't move much until then; but the market "is a rather impatient sort of creature and isn't going to wait for things to get better before it acts."

Economic news and individual company reports:

Total US Internal Revenue for fiscal year ended June 30 was $3.038B vs. $2.939B in 1929; corp. income tax $1.264B, individual $1.147B, misc. $628M.

Industries with good first-half earnings include cigarettes, sulfur, can, baking/biscuit, oil, and chain stores.

Total dividend payments in first half are up vs. 1929, in spite of generally worse earnings and many individual dividend cuts. Total for a large, representative group of companies was $944.9M in H1 1930 vs. $906.2M in H1 1929.

50 of 52 major rails reported declines in loading for week ended June 28 vs. 1929.

June contracts for new construction in 37 states east of Rockies totalled $601M vs. $457M in May and $530M in June 1929. Of total, $251.9M was public works & utilities, $96.8M residential. Permits for 20 cities on the Pacific Coast were $16.3M vs. $19.3M in May and $22.3M in June 1929.

Cling Peach Control Committee announces plan to restrict production to 13M cases, “and thus prevent a catastrophe to the industry.”

Surprisingly Political Joke:

"Teacher - Johnny, what's the difference between a battle and a massacre? Johnny - a battle is where whole lot of whites kill a few Indians, and a massacre is where a lot of Indians kill a few whites."

+ The Boring Stuff:

Editorial: Senator Capper's proposal to support the wheat market by having the Farm Board buy 100M bushels will be very expensive ($25M-$30M annually for storage alone), and won't work. “There is only one way to cure inflation whether in commodity or security markets, and that is by deflation.” Agriculture will eventually be more stable if we stop all intervention in the market and allow a complete adjustment to take place.

Investment buying has come in to support stocks over past 10 days in spite of little good business news, determined bear attacks, and lack of bank support for stocks. This investment buying is encouraging, as is strength in the bond market. Many experts also expect an early fall improvement in trade. Q2 earnings reports expected to be unfavorable, but this is largely discounted already in stock prices.

Technical chartists are more bullish based on recent Dow action. Considered encouraging that in the June break Dow held above five-year trendine at 208. Also encouraging that Dow is now able to rise above previous rally highs.

Short covering in recent sessions has substantially reduced the short interest.

Commodities generally lower over past week. Wheat broke to record low Friday about $.86/bushel; Farm Board announced no further price support operations. Record lows also seen in silk and sugar. Cotton fluctuated. Most bond prices moved higher in week, including rails, municipals, foreigns, and convertibles. Foreign markets past week: London stronger, Berlin weak, Paris dull.

Cost of proposed “express highway” between Brooklyn and Queens estimated at $40M.

Otis Elevator net for first half $1.49/share vs. $1.78 in 1929.

Eaton Spring & Axle first half net was $1.386M vs. $2.060M in 1929.

First National Stores (New England chain store) sales for 5 weeks ended June 28 up 10.1% over 1929; 13 weeks up 10.7%; about half of gain from new stores. Q2 earnings about $1.28/share vs. $1.42 in 1929. Annual sales about $120M.

American Toll Bridge first half revenues were $668,600 vs. $592,100 in 1929; operating expenses down substantially from 1929.

Continental Baking net for 10 weeks ended June 21 was $1.314M vs. $1.588M in 1929.

International Cement net for Q2 was $1.91/share vs. $1.34/share Q1 and $1.86/share Q2 1929.

Liquid Carbonic (carbonated drinks, industrial carbon dioxide) expects earnings for year ended Sept. 30 about $6.50/share vs. $5.67/share in 1929.

BMT (NY city mass transit) earnings improve ($7.60 for year ended June 30 vs. $6.52 in 1929), but future is clouded by structure of contracts with city and negotiations for possible unification with the city's new Eighth Ave. subway.

No comments:

Post a Comment